NOAA
NOAA says this El Niño will be one of the strongest since record-keeping began in 1950.
El Niño is continuing to strengthen and is expected to remain in place through the end of 2026, with a 97% chance of lasting into early spring 2027.
Over the past month, ocean temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific have continued to rise, a key sign that El Niño is becoming stronger. Changes in ocean currents, wind patterns, and tropical rainfall also confirm that the atmosphere and ocean are working together to reinforce the event.
NOAA
Climate models predict El Niño will keep intensifying during the rest of 2026. There is an 81% chance it will become a very strong El Niño between October and December, making it one of the most powerful events recorded since 1950. While every El Niño is different, stronger events increase the likelihood of major shifts in weather patterns around the world.
The outlook was issued jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS). The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 August 2026.
Why it matters:
A strengthening El Niño can influence weather across the globe, increasing the chances of heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall, flooding, and stronger storms in different regions, affecting agriculture, water supplies, ecosystems, and economies.
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