Odds of an Asteroid Striking Earth Have Increased

New observations show an increase in the chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth, now at 2.3% on December 22, 2032.

Though still unlikely, scientists will continue tracking it with ground-based telescopes through April, after which it will become too faint to see until June 2028.

In March 2025, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will take a closer look to refine size estimates, currently ranging from 130 to 300 feet.

With more data, scientists will better determine the asteroid’s true risk. It may be ruled out as a hazard—like many before it—or the impact probability could increase. NASA will keep updating its Sentry risk page with the latest findings.

YR4 asteroid size comparison. Wikipedia