Images at Sundman V crater when it was in temporal shadow (A) and direct solar illumination (B), respectively. Shuai Li et al. Science Advances
A new analysis suggests that surface water ice on the Moon is much less abundant than earlier estimates implied.
Airless bodies like the Moon, Mercury, and Ceres contain permanently shadowed regions (PSRs)—areas that never receive sunlight and can trap volatile compounds such as water ice. While Mercury and Ceres show clear evidence of substantial ice deposits, the Moon’s inventory has remained uncertain due to limited and indirect observations.
Researchers used high-resolution imagery from the ShadowCam instrument aboard the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter to examine lunar PSRs. By analyzing brightness and forward-scattering properties, they searched for optical signatures associated with ice to identify exposed surface deposits.
The results show no evidence of widespread water ice at concentrations above the detection threshold of 20–30 weight percent. However, the study does not exclude the possibility of lower concentrations distributed more broadly. A few exhibited optical characteristics consistent with higher ice content (above ~10 wt%), but these are limited in extent.
Future missions with improved sensitivity, capable of detecting water at levels below 1 wt%, will be needed to confirm whether low-density ice is more widely present.
Why it matters:
Resource expectations: Water ice is critical for future lunar exploration (life support, fuel production). Lower-than-expected concentrations could complicate mission planning and increase costs.
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